Bitcoin (BTC) could blast the now-popular $98,000 cost target — but it could end up existence the bike top, new research argues.

In its "October 2022 Market Recap & Outlook," major United states of america exchange Kraken said that Bitcoin should reach effectually $96,000 if this quarter copies the last bull run.

Copycat Bitcoin may elevation out below $100,000

With BTC price predictions reaching $300,000, the new analysis from Kraken suggests that if BTC/USD were to copy its 2022 performance, this bicycle's peak could terminate up still beingness under $100,000.

While facing calls for a "worst-case scenario" November closing cost of $98,000, it could exist that Bitcoin ends upward peaking at around that level instead.

"At the current pace, 4Q is trending almost similarly to 4Q2017 with a correlation of 0.88. Information technology should be noted that 4Q2017 went on to become Bitcoin's third best 4Q on record with a return of +220%," Kraken wrote.

"Assuming BTC continues to follow in the footsteps of 4Q2017, we could expect BTC to rally even higher into month stop. For some context, a +220% in 4Q2021 would imply a price of $96,355 for BTC."
Bitcoin Q4 returns comparison chart. Source: Kraken

The report as well noted that November historically tends to be more volatile, equally well equally deliver the largest monthly returns.

A separate prediction involved Bollinger Bands and Bitcoin'due south relative strength index (RSI).

"Historically, BTC'southward cycle tops have coincided with BTC hitting both its upper Bollinger band AND the one-month relative strength index (RSI) striking a reading of 96," information technology added.

Currently at 71.7, the RSI thus has room to grow in line with spot toll activity. As Cointelegraph reported, the metric is responsible for some of the high BTC price predictions for this bicycle.

The upper Bollinger Band, meanwhile, currently gives a reading of around $112,000.

Bitcoin upper Bollinger Band, 1-month RSI vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Kraken

$ane-trillion asset class is here to stay

Should Bitcoin's current run stall at significant resistance near $70,000, a dip may not toll bulls more than than around twenty%.

Related: 'Resistance is futile' — v things to sentry in Bitcoin this week

Looking at the cost at which every Bitcoin inverse easily, analyst Willy Woo ended that the $50,000–$60,000 zone is more than than solid enough as support.

"Bitcoin as a $1T asset class IMO is now cemented; hard to run into it dropping below this zone," part of his comments on Monday read, alongside data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.